Aluminium gains as China's aluminum operating capacity shrinks.
Aluminium prices saw a notable increase of 1.2%, settling at 202.85, driven by a drop in China's aluminium operating capacity, particularly in Yunnan, due to power shortages. China's primary aluminium output in November surged by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 3.54 million metric tons. Major producing regions added new capacity to meet robust demand for the lightweight metal, resulting in an average daily output of 118,000 tons in November, up from October's daily average of 116,774 tons.
For the first eleven months of the year, China produced 38 million tons, reflecting a 3.9% increase compared to the corresponding period last year. China's economic indicators show a mixed picture, with a targeted budget deficit of 3% of GDP in 2024, a reduction from this year's revised ratio of 3.8%. The People's Bank of China injected CNY 1.45 trillion via a one-year medium-term lending facility to the banking system, maintaining the interest rate at 2.50%. Retail sales in November increased by 10.1% year-on-year, accelerating from the previous month.
Technically, the aluminium market is experiencing short covering, with a 23.24% decrease in open interest to 2758. With prices up by 2.4 rupees, aluminium is currently finding support at 200.5, with a potential downside test at 198.1. Resistance is likely at 205, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 207.1. The market dynamics highlight
the impact of China's aluminium production, economic policies, and global demand trends on aluminium prices.
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